US faces dilemma over Egypt: Expert
Reposted from Author : Abdul Khalik, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Mon, 01/31/2011 11:31 AM |
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| Hosni mobarak |
World- The United States is in a difficult position because of the current crisis in Egypt, a Middle East expert says.The US must choose between standing behind its long-term ally, embattled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, or allowing the crisis in Egypt to produce a government that could potentially be anti-American, the expert said.
University of Indonesia Middle East analyst Amris Hasan said Sunday the US was initially upbeat about the potential results of the crisis in Egypt, hoping Nobel Peace Prize winner Mohamed ElBaradei might take the lead after Mubarak’s imminent fall.
“But, it turns out Elbaradei doesn’t have wide grassroots support as initially expected. Mubarak’s exit will not necessarily mean a pro-America government will be installed,” Amris said.
Mubarak gave in to protesters on Saturday and appointed Omar Suleiman vice president. The move was seen as lining up Suleiman as an eventual successor, at least for a transition period.
Amris said the question was whether Suleiman will be accepted by Egyptians.
“Suleiman can also be a compromise choice for the US and guide Egypt to democratic elections. The US can’t wipe their hands of this because Egypt has been their ally on the frontlines in the Middle East all along,” he said.
Amris said that the end game for Egypt was the creation of a compromise government that included the Muslim Brotherhood and the ruling National Democratic Party, calculating that Mubarak would not last long considering the situation in Egypt.
He said what happened in Egypt would not necessarily produce similar pushes in other Middle Eastern countries.
For Syria’s ruler Assad, he and his family have long been seen as the bridge between Sunni and Shiite that can unite the country, he said.
“Mubarak doesn’t have that leverage. Egyptians see him as no added value to the country,” he said.
In Jordan, the royal family still garners high respect from the people, he said.
“The monarchy in Jordan still has a strong position. What complicates the issue in Jordan is that almost 50 percent of the country’s population are Palestinians. The US definitely doesn’t want things to get out of hand in Jordan,” he said.
The international community shouldn’t jump to any quick conclusions that revolution in Egypt will spread to rich Gulf countries.
“That is because those Gulf countries bring wealth and prosperity to the people,” he said.
The most immediate impact of the revolution in Egypt will be to complicate the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. Egypt under Islamists would tend to be close with Hamas and distanced from Israel, he said.
“It determines Israel’s existence. A stable Egypt, as has been shown, means a secured border. Any change of government in Egypt would mean a revolution for Israel’s security doctrine. For the US and Israel, it would be very risky to leave Egypt’s strong armed forces in the hands of an unknown government,” he said.
Meanwhile, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has advised Indonesians not to travel to Egypt until the political turmoil in that country subsides.
“I’m following the developing situation day by day, hour by hour. I hope a travel advisory will be issued for our citizens because it is unsafe there,” Yudhoyono said at Zurich International Airport on Saturday evening (Zurich time) en route home from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
The President said 300 Indonesian citizens who arrived in Egypt after the situation began to deteriorate were all safe.
He said he had asked the Indonesian Embassy in Egypt to ensure the safety of Indonesian citizens there.
There are currently more than 5,000 Indonesians living in Egypt, including 4,000 students.(RDH)
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